[Tuesday November 7th, 2023]
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) settled at around 1,523 points (USD) on November 7th, 2023 versus ~1,780 points (USD) on October 4th, 2023 i.e. the date when we released our previous blog. During October 2023, the Index traded as high as at 2,105 points (USD) on October 18th.
In the earlier period, and specifically from May 10, 2023 until June 2, 2023 the BDI recorded a significant drop i.e. from 1,633 to 919 points, while in the immediate previous period i.e. from March 7, 2023 to May 10, 2023 the Index was trading along the channel of 1,300 – 1,650 points.
From June 2020 up to August 2023, the Baltic Dry Index has been almost convincingly trading above the psychological level of 1,000 with the exception of two periods, i.e. firstly the period January – February 2023, when the Index retreated notably dropping as low as at 500 points, and secondly the period May – June 2023 as mentioned above. In the beginning of July 2023, the Index also slipped below 1,000 for few trading sessions.
Our previous blog, on October 4th, 2023, with the Index at ~1,780, was reading as follows:
“…BDI levels are now well above their historic average and the fact that the Index climbed sharply higher in relatively short period of time, amid not so favorable macro-economic and financial conditions internationally, might imply a rising probability of a potential price correction. …”
We currently view that BDI can sustain the higher territories it is trading in, i.e. well above the psychological level of 1,000, however we would not expect to see any significant upside from the current prices. Therefore we would anticipate the Index to continue trading along the broad range of 1,200 – 1,800 at least for the following few weeks. In the meantime, world economies are weighing the effect of a potential pause of interest rates hikes by central banks, a development that may shed some optimism on the markets.
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of November 7th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 4th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of September 1st, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of March 1st, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 15th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of November 23rd, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 12th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
Source: Bloomberg
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of August 31st, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
Source: Bloomberg
FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | July – November 7th, 2023
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | 2014 – November 7th, 2023
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 38 Years up to November 7th, 2023
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
