BDI Climbs Once Again Well Above Historic Average Price Range

[Tuesday, March 19th, 2024]                                 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)* settled at around ~2,392.00 points (USD) on March 19th, 2024 versus ~1,629.00 points (USD) on February 20th, 2024 which was the release date of our previous blog.    

The Index has been comfortably trading, and with upward tendency, within historic average price range of 1,000 – 2,000 for most of the time during the period from January 2023 and up until today. Furthermore BDI surpassed the level of 2,000 in two notable occasions during the fourth quarter 2023 and the first quarter 2024.   

Our previous blog, on February 20th, 2024 with the Index standing at ~1,629.00, was reading as follows:

    “… With interest rates descending very slowly within the year 2024 according to the best case scenario, we would be very cautious in adopting a bullish outlook for global economic growth and international demand for goods that could be transported via the shipping market. The broad average historic price range of BDI is settling at 1,000 – 2,000 and in this context we continue to view as most likely scenario for the Index to be trading within this range. We also assign a greater probability for the Index to be fluctuating within the subrange of 1,000 – 1,500 compared to the subrange of 1,500 – 2,000. …”    

Our Current View: The Index continues to capitalize on resilient economic growth, albeit at very different pace across the major economies internationally and on expectations of rate cuts during 2024 along with anticipation of a minimal impact on markets from the currently higher interest rates. If the Index continues to trade at these high levels or even higher, we will expect to see a surge in volatility that might drive prices back to normal levels and closer to historic averages. The trading range of 1,000 – 2,000 remains our base-case scenario at this stage.   

(*):Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world.

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of March 18th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 20th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of January 18th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of December 6th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 4th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of September 1st, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of March 1st, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 15th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

            Source: Bloomberg   

FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | September – March 18th, 2024    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]   

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | 2015 – March 18th, 2024    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]   

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 39 Years up to March 18th, 2024    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]   

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

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