The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was trading at around ¬1,755 points (USD) on October 26th, 2022 versus ~1,904 points (USD) on October 12th, 2022, ~1,017 points on August 31st, 2022, ~2,145 points on July 20th and versus ~3,253 points on May 25th, 2022, ~1,644 points on January 19th, 2022, ~2,300 points on December 22nd, 2021 and vis-à-vis ~3,350 points during November 2021. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 pts of October 27th, 2021 and to a trading level of around 5,380 pts on October 13, 2021. The above also compared to the trading level of 4,962 pts at the end of September 2021.
Concerning the period before that, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in the middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4th, 3,058 points on July 21st, 3,179 pts on July 5th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.
Our previous blog a couple of weeks ago, with the BDI ranging at around 1,904 points, ended as follows: “… Based on the behavior of the index over the past 4 weeks, BDI is currently approaching the long-term historic average levels which are formed at around 2,000 pts (USD) and therefore this particular level might emerge as a psychological and at the same time strong resistance level. Market sentiment is not particular favorable at this stage with regard to the global macro-economic dynamics, whereas fundamentals of shipping companies appear to be fragile but on the other hand they are in no way doomed …“
What currently and mostly weighs with the dry bulk market is the well-known combination of factors, namely inflation pressures / interest rate hikes, uncertain global economic outlook and finally geopolitics that have impacted via energy prices the whole macroeconomic environment. We wish to stick to our view that BDI is more likely to be tilting in the trading range that is closer to the level of 2,000 rather than to be drifting much lower, i.e. below 1,500 or towards 1,000. The neighborhood right below 2,000 is the fair level of pricing of the Index based on its historic average performance if we take look of the last 30 or more years.
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 26th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 12th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of August 31st, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of July 6th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of June 8th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of May 25th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of April 27th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):
Source: Bloomberg
FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | June – October 26th, 2022
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | 2013 – October 26th, 2022
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 36 Years up to October 26th, 2022
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
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