BDI Dip following Short-term Gains                  

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was trading at around ~1,250 points (USD) on January 3rd, 2023 versus 1,720 points on December 21st, 2022, ~1,904 points (USD) on October 12th, 2022, ~2,145 points on July 20th and versus ~3,253 points on May 25th, 2022, ~1,644 points on January 19th, 2022, ~2,300 points on December 22nd, 2021 and vis-à-vis ~3,350 points during November 2021. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 pts of October 27th, 2021 and to a trading level of around 5,380 pts on October 13, 2021. The above also compared to the trading level of 4,962 pts at the end of September 2021.   

Concerning the period before that, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in the middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4th, 3,058 points on July 21st, 3,179 pts on July 5th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.

Our previous blog a couple of weeks ago (December 22nd, 2022), with the BDI ranging at around 1,596 points, ended as follows: “…We would expect BDI to continue trending along the above mentioned range (1,000-1,500) after having gained some steady ground over the past 3-4 weeks. The global macro outlook is in our view the main determinant factor of the short-term course of the Index along with the further opening of the Chinese market following the Covid restrictions. However overall we don’t tend to anticipate any major swings in the levels of BDI over the next couple of weeks. …”   

During that period the BDI surpassed the 1,700 level before retreating and dropping as low as around the level of 1,250 marking a quite sharp swing. Technically we continue to hold the view that the Index will be trading along the range of 1,000 – 1,500 in the next couple of weeks despite the fact that the particular range is below the long-term historic average levels of the Index. Furthermore at its current levels, the Index has already discounted a global recession which appears to be a probable scenario to materialize over the coming months but not so certain in our view.

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of January 3rd, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of November 23rd, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 26th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 12th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of August 31st, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of July 6th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of June 8th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

            Source: Bloomberg   

FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | September 2022 – January 3rd, 2023    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | 2013 – January 3rd, 2023    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 36 Years up to January 3rd, 2023    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com