[Tuesday July 11^th, 2023]                             

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) settled at around ~1,009 points (USD) on July 7^th-10^th, 2023, having advanced as high as at 1,240 during the previous three weeks.   

In the earlier period, and specifically from May 10, 2023 until June 2, 2023 the BDI recorded a significant drop i.e. from 1,633 to 919 points, while in the previous period and particularly from March 7, 2023 to May 10, 2023 the Index was trading along the channel of 1,300 – 1,650 points.   

From June 2020 – June 2023, the Baltic Dry Index has been trading above the 1,000 level with the exception of only two periods, i.e. firstly the period January – February 2023, when the Index retreated significantly and traded as low as 500 points, and secondly the period May – June 2023 already mentioned. In the very beginning of July 2023, the Index also slipped below 1,000 for a few trading sessions.   

Our previous blog, on June 21^st, 2023, with the Index at ~1,080, was mentioning the following:

“… Despite the ongoing interest rate hikes of the past several months and central banks’ attitude to continue adopting a hawkish policy, the global economy continues to prove resilient and no signs of a major recession have emerged in the horizon so far.    

As long as global economic growth stays in positive territory and major economies such as the US, China and Eurozone are in position to avoid a recession shock, the dry bulk shipping market as expressed by BDI may be in better position to sustain or even enhance its current pricing levels…”   

A major recession shock in the major economies is not yet off the table but now most participants seem to anticipate it from 2024 onwards. Current short-term market cycle in the dry bulk market is not especially favorable given the recent trends of the secondhand market but we would not see any significant downside risk at this stage as far as the BDI trading levels are concerned.

__

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of July 10^th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of June 21^st, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of March 1^st, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 15^th, 2023 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of November 23^rd, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of October 12^th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of August 31^st, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

            Source: Bloomberg   

FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | February – July 10^th, 2023    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]   

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | 2014 – July 10^th, 2023    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]   

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 38 Years up to July 10^th, 2023    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]   

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com