BDI in General Negative Orbit

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was trading at around ~1,817 points on August 3rd, comparing to ~2,145 points on July 20th and versus ~3,253 points on May 25th, 2022, ~2,420 points on March 30th, 2022, ~1,644 points on January 19th, 2022, ~2,300 points on December 22nd, 2021 and vis-à-vis ~3,350 points during November 2021. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 pts of October 27th, 2021 and to a trading level of around 5,380 pts on October 13, 2021. The above also compared to the trading level of 4,962 pts at the end of September 2021.    

Concerning the period before that, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in the middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4th, 3,058 points on July 21st, 3,179 pts on July 5th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.

Our previous blog a couple of weeks ago, with the BDI at around 2,145 points, ended as follows: “…On the backdrop of the market, we continue to see some uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook and the degree by which this will be affected by the inflationary pressures and the interest rate hikes along with the energy related developments taking place in the biggest economies. …”

It is true that we have not been expecting the BDI to be trading well below the 2,000 pts level as it finally did, being mainly affected by expectations over a grim global economic outlook and a tough recession down the road. Still in our view there is no sufficient evidence, as yet, to support the above especially pessimistic scenario and therefore we would expect the BDI to show some signs of an upcoming short term reversal.    

            Source: Bloomberg
            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com 
            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com 
            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com