BDI Rebound with Volatility Looming

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was trading at around ~1,408 points (USD) on September 14th, 2022 versus ~1,017 points on August 31st, 2022, ~2,145 points on July 20th and versus ~3,253 points on May 25th, 2022, ~1,644 points on January 19th, 2022, ~2,300 points on December 22nd, 2021 and vis-à-vis ~3,350 points during November 2021. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 pts of October 27th, 2021 and to a trading level of around 5,380 pts on October 13, 2021. The above also compared to the trading level of 4,962 pts at the end of September 2021.   

Concerning the period before that, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in the middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4th, 3,058 points on July 21st, 3,179 pts on July 5th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.

Our previous blog a couple of weeks ago, with the BDI at around 1,017 points, ended as follows: “… BDI trades at relatively historic low levels looking at the chart of the past 36 years whereas the very sharp correction of the dry bulk market implies that the high volatility might “benefit” both directions of the market. Therefore, and despite the very bearish sentiment, even a reversal could not be excluded from the most likely scenarios going forward. …”

We continue to hold the view that BDI levels towards 2,000 are more representative of a volatile post Covid market with significant disruptions in supply chain rather than the levels close to 1,000. Currently the magnitude of recession that is to come puts an especially bearish tone on the dry bulk market and of course it is of no surprise. On the other hand, any sign of a less than severe contraction of economic activity going forward could add some more positive momentum and build an even stronger reversal in the short-term.

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of September 14th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of August 31st, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of August 17th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of July 6th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of June 8th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of May 25th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of April 27th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):    

            Source: Bloomberg   

FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | June – September 14th, 2022    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | 2013 – September 14th, 2022    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 36 Years up to September 14th, 2022    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

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