Dry Bulk Market Uplift

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was trading at around ~1,968 points on February 16th, 2022, versus ~1,644 points on January 19th, 2022, ~2,300 points on December 22nd, 2021 and vis-à-vis ~3,350 points during November 2021. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 points of October 27th, 2021 and to a previous trading level of around 5,380 points on October 13, 2021. The above also compared to the trading level of 4,962 points at the end of September 2021.   

Concerning the period before that, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in the middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4th, 3,058 points on July 21st, 3,179 pts on July 5th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.

Looking at the most recent trend now, the Dry Bulk Index has recovered notably over the past couple of weeks -from a trading level of around 1,420 points at the beginning of February- as it climbed above the 1,950 points in just two-week time.

In our view, a good part of this recovery should be attributed to the oversold state of the Index, which collapsed from the highs of 5,400 points that were realized in October 2021 and landed to around 1,400 points at the end of January 2022, having shed almost 4,000 points in the last 4 months or so.

This short-term uplift has been taking place against a global market backdrop consisting of inflationary pressures, rising rates, along with geopolitical tensions, and with a short-term correction in iron ore prices being the cherry on the cake in this market environment. In all these, one could also add the Covid pandemic situation which still poses significant risks to the global demand outlook and economic growth prospects.

All in all the BDI has averaged 1,720 points so far in 2022 versus 2,920 points on average in 2021.

Weighting the above market developments and evaluating the factors that might affect the trajectory of Baltic Dry Index, we continue to hold the view that the current year, 2022, will yield a trading level that will be on average above the ones of 2020 and 2019 but not as high as the one of 2021.

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 16th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 2nd, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):     

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of January 19th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):   

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of January 5th 2022 (latest price and intraday change):   

Source: Bloomberg

FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | October 2021 – February 16, 2022    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 2012 – February 16, 2022    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | Last 36 Years up to February 2022    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

            Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com