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Looking ahead in Year 2022

Amid continuous volatility, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on November 24th, 2021 settled at around 2,715 points vis-à-vis 2,805 points a couple of weeks before. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 points of October 27th, 2021 and to a previous trading level of around 5,380 points on October 13, 2021. The above levels were also comparing to the trading neighborhood of 4,962 points at the end of September 2021.

Concerning the period before, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4th, 3,058 points on July 21st, 3,179 pts on July 5th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.

Despite the recent volatility and the sharp drop seen in the Baltic Dry Index, participants in the market have started looking ahead and try to figure out how the market will play out in year 2022. It is very difficult indeed to predict how the freight / charter rates will evolve but on the other hand a few points could be highlighted even from now:

–To a certain extent, key rates might pick up in the next few weeks up until the end of the year after their latest sharp fall

–First half of 2022, could be as strong as the current quarter when the rates in spite of the latest big fall are still well above the levels of 2020 and 2019

–The above point implies that profit margins for the bulk carriers should remain strong or at least healthy, given that their breakeven point is by far lower than the present levels of freight rates

–On the supply side, the order book when it comes to the dry bulk vessels continues to be notably low and in favor of relatively sustainable asset prices

–Finally on the demand side, even though there is now a big question mark due to the Covid resurgence, the most logical scenario to assume is that economies will end up in a better shape for the entire 2022 as compared to 2021.

All in all, the current trading level of BDI might not post a too big downside risk at the moment with the Index sustaining in the next months and quarters a trading level that will be higher, or notably higher, than the average ones of years 2020 and 2019.

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of November 24th, 2021:

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of November 10th, 2021:


Source: Bloomberg

FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) – August – November 24, 2021     

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) – 2012 – November 24, 2021    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) – Last 36 Years up to November 2021    

[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]

Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com

Esben Poulsson

Chairman - International Chamber of Shipping
Executive Chairman - ENESEL PTE. LTD

Esben Poulsson is the Chairman of International Chamber of Shipping and the Executive Chairman of ENESEL PTE. LTD., a Singapore based ship owning entity, of a fleet of large container vessels all under the Singapore Flag. He has worked in the maritime industry for over 45 years and has held a variety of senior management positions in Hong Kong, London, Copenhagen and Singapore.

He is a Non-Executive Director of X-Press Feeders Ltd., of Epic Gas Ltd., of Nordic Shipholding A/S and of Batchfire Resources Pty. Ltd. He is non-executive Chairman of Cambiaso Risso Asia Pte. Ltd. and of Tamar Shipmanagement Ltd. He also serves on the Board of the Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA).

He is immediate past President of the Singapore Shipping Association and is an Advisory Panel Member of the Singapore Maritime Foundation.

John D. McCown

Co-Founder & Former Chairman & CEO - Trailer Bridge, Inc.
Author of "Giants Of The Sea: Ships & Men Who Changed The World"

John D. McCown is the co-founder and former Chairman & CEO of U.S. flag container carrier Trailer Bridge, Inc. Mr. McCown has been involved with shipping since getting his MBA from Harvard four decades ago. His mentor was Malcom McLean, the transportation pioneer who invented container shipping. More recently, Mr. McCown's focus on the industry has been from an investment perspective, including several years as the transport sector head at a $20 billion hedge fund. He is now focused on various entrepreneurial projects in the maritime space.

Co-Founder and Honorary Chairman
Tsavliris Cultural Foundation
Principal - Tsavliris Salvage Group

Mr. George A. Tsavliris was born in London. He graduated from Athens College in 1968 and having acquired professional qualifications in Shipping (F.I.C.S., ACI.Arb), he concluded his graduate and post graduate studies in Shipping Law at University College London in 1973, with an L.L.M. degree. In 2009 he was qualified as a Mediator at the ADR Group London and in 2014 was certified as a Mediator by the Greek Ministry of Justice, Transparency and Human Rights. He familiarized himself with the shipping and salvage sectors from a very early age by being engaged in the family business. George is a Principal at “Tsavliris Salvage Group” and represents the business on both a commercial and environmental basis internationally.

He holds the position of Past Chairman of INTERMEPA (International Marine Environment Protection Association), Chairman of CYMEPA (Cyprus Marine Environmental Protection Association), which received the “Cyprus Maritime Prize 2007”, as well as member of the Board of Directors of Cyprus Union of Shipowners, Board Member of ECSA (European Community Shipowners’ Associations), Board Member of The Yacht Club of Greece, Board Member of Friends of Hellas Liberty Association and the Jubilee Sailing Trust in the UK and Honorary Chairman of the Tsavliris Cultural Foundation. Furthermore, Mr. George Tsavliris is Member of the Academic Board of Metropolitan College / Solent Southampton University. Mr George Tsavliris was awarded the 2016 Capital Link Greek Shipping Leadership Award, in recognition of his unique and extensive contribution to Shipping and Greece and for his overall outstanding service to the shipping industry made by him individually, as a family and by his company as a Group.

In Jan 2019, Mr Tsavliris received the Cyprus Environmental Award on behalf of CYMEPA by the President of the Cypriot Republic Mr Nikos Anastasiades and on March 12th, 2019, Mr Tsavliris was recognized with the Safety4Sea Leadership Award 2019 for his work with CYMEPA and other national & international organizations, toward the protection of the marine environment. Most recently, Mr Tsavliris was appointed Non-Executive Chairman of SSL Endeavour Insurance Brokers Cyprus & Greece. George is a frequent keynote speaker and panelist at numerous maritime related conferences. He is an avid supporter of various charities, an art and music enthusiast and has completed ten London marathons. He is a father of six children.

George Tsavliris

Co-Founder and Honorary Chairman
Tsavliris Cultural Foundation
Principal - Tsavliris Salvage Group

Mr. George A. Tsavliris was born in London. He graduated from Athens College in 1968 and having acquired professional qualifications in Shipping (F.I.C.S., ACI.Arb), he concluded his graduate and post graduate studies in Shipping Law at University College London in 1973, with an L.L.M. degree. In 2009 he was qualified as a Mediator at the ADR Group London and in 2014 was certified as a Mediator by the Greek Ministry of Justice, Transparency and Human Rights. He familiarized himself with the shipping and salvage sectors from a very early age by being engaged in the family business. George is a Principal at “Tsavliris Salvage Group” and represents the business on both a commercial and environmental basis internationally.

He holds the position of Past Chairman of INTERMEPA (International Marine Environment Protection Association), Chairman of CYMEPA (Cyprus Marine Environmental Protection Association), which received the “Cyprus Maritime Prize 2007”, as well as member of the Board of Directors of Cyprus Union of Shipowners, Board Member of ECSA (European Community Shipowners’ Associations), Board Member of The Yacht Club of Greece, Board Member of Friends of Hellas Liberty Association and the Jubilee Sailing Trust in the UK and Honorary Chairman of the Tsavliris Cultural Foundation. Furthermore, Mr. George Tsavliris is Member of the Academic Board of Metropolitan College / Solent Southampton University. Mr George Tsavliris was awarded the 2016 Capital Link Greek Shipping Leadership Award, in recognition of his unique and extensive contribution to Shipping and Greece and for his overall outstanding service to the shipping industry made by him individually, as a family and by his company as a Group.

In Jan 2019, Mr Tsavliris received the Cyprus Environmental Award on behalf of CYMEPA by the President of the Cypriot Republic Mr Nikos Anastasiades and on March 12th, 2019, Mr Tsavliris was recognized with the Safety4Sea Leadership Award 2019 for his work with CYMEPA and other national & international organizations, toward the protection of the marine environment. Most recently, Mr Tsavliris was appointed Non-Executive Chairman of SSL Endeavour Insurance Brokers Cyprus & Greece. George is a frequent keynote speaker and panelist at numerous maritime related conferences. He is an avid supporter of various charities, an art and music enthusiast and has completed ten London marathons. He is a father of six children.