VRS Research Team – Monday May 26th, 2025
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI)* settled at around ~1,340.00 points (USD) on May 23rd – 26th, 2025 versus ~1,424.00 points (USD) on March 11th, 2025, which was the release date of our previous blog and vis-à-vis ~1,354.00 points (USD) in the beginning of December 2024.
During the year 2024, BDI traded within the broader range of 1,000 – 2,500 with continuous notable swings along a relatively downward trend line.
Our previous blog, in March 2025 with the Index standing at ~1,424.00, was reading as follows:
“… In the past 3 months, the BDI traded mostly along the lower half, i.e. 1,000-1,500, of the historic average trading range of 1,000-2,000 amid increasing volatility. We had repeatedly stated that this lower half was the most representative trading range for index. However as the global market enters into a new trading cycle (amid tariffs, imminent inflation pressures, unknown course of interest rates and potential supply disruptions) we would argue that such an environment of skyrocketing volatility might positively affect BDI. In general the Index has performed in a resilient manner in periods of supply disruptions and market upheaval of short-term nature, whereas the Index has been prone to perform poorly amid prolonged periods of recession …”
So far, we have broadly predicted the trading range that has materialized for BDI over the latest period. This is the lower half, i.e. 1,000-1,500, of the historic average trading range of 1,000-2,000.
Our Current View: Markets remain nervous and investors appear to be quite despondent for the fact that uncertainty over the tariff regime between US and other major economies continues to prevail and be unresolved. Furthermore the likelihood of high inflation pressures in the longer run along with the ultimate threat of stagflation, which is the worst-case scenario, have now become part of market expectations affecting investment strategies and business decisions. At this stage the dry bulk shipping market remains quite resilient having avoided conditions of especially high volatility, however there are still various unknown factors that can affect sentiment and strategic decisions going forward. These are the rate of fleet growth, the demand for bulk commodity worldwide, the economic state of the major economies, notably of US and China, and finally the long-term direction of monetary policy in the form of the prevailing interest rates.
(*): Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world.
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of May 26th, 2025 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of March 11th, 2025 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of December 2nd, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of September 3rd, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of July 29th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of June 10th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of April 17th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of March 18th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of February 20th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
BALTIC DRY INDEX as of January 18th, 2024 (latest price and intraday change):
Source: Bloomberg
FIGURE 1: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 1 Year up to May 26th, 2025
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com , www.tradingeconomics.com
FIGURE 2: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 5 Years up to May 26th, 2025
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com , www.tradingeconomics.com
FIGURE 3: Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (in USD) | Last 40 Years up to May 26th, 2025
[Bloomberg ticker: BDIY:IND, BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index]
Source: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/ , www.investing.com
