Baltic Dry Index Regained Some Ground

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was trading at around ~2,405 points on April 27^th versus 2,035 points on April 13^th, 2022, ~2,420 points on March 30^th, 2022, ~1,644 points on January 19^th, 2022, ~2,300 points on December 22^nd, 2021 and vis-à-vis ~3,350 points during November 2021. That level compared to the 4,050-4,060 pts of October 27^th, 2021 and to a previous trading level of around 5,380 pts on October 13, 2021. The above also compared to the trading level of 4,962 pts at the end of September 2021.

Concerning the period before that, the Baltic Dry Index traded at around 3,650 points in the middle of August 2021 versus 3,281 points on August 4^th, 3,058 points on July 21^st, 3,179 pts on July 5^th, 2021, and 2,420 pts during May 2021.

Our previous blog, a couple of weeks ago with the BDI at around 2,030-2,040 points, ended as follows: “…we don’t really see any substantial downside risk at this stage, and instead we hold on to our view that during the rest of the year the market will be trading above its historic average levels from which it is currently not so far away …”

With all the disruptions across the globe in full speed, i.e. unforeseen levels of inflation, side-effects of Covid-19 pandemic, Ukraine war, energy crisis and supply constraints, the dry bulk shipping market is well positioned to accumulate gains and further solidify its price levels over the following months.

Our approach and overall effort to project the market’s future trajectory is based on simple economic logic taking into account what we have seen not only in the past few quarters but also historically. On the contrary, if the above disruptions subside then the normalization of the market will most likely reignite its downside risk.

BALTIC DRY INDEX as of April 27^th, 2022 (latest price and intraday change):