Two Sides of The Same Coin

There are two sides to every coin. Dollar Tree announced they were breaking with a twenty-year policy of only charging $1.00 for each item, and testing $1.25 to $1.50 price points. Perhaps they will have to change the name of their brand to “Dollar Tree and Then Some More, or Dollar Plus Tree.” You don’t need to listen to Jerome Powell or other economists to agonize whether inflation is transitory. Clearly it is not, or Dollar Tree wouldn’t be looking for a new identity.

There are always bull markets somewhere. What is terrible for Dollar Tree has manifested itself in sustained gains in the container shipping trade. Investors and analysts keep trying to call the top, guessing whether it will be next month or next year. No one really knows. I read today that the container ship backup now stretches to Savannah, the fourth largest US port, with 20 ships awaiting berths. Even if there were more ships, there are not enough truck drivers at the ports. They in turn have left to join Amazon to make deliveries, where they receive higher pay with better benefits. I don’t blame the drivers, just as Dollar Tree was unconcerned in the past when ship owners and liner companies made year after year of losses.

We have a wonderful opportunity in the form of the Capital Link’s 13th Annual New York Maritime Forum – Shipping Is It All Glitter and Gold? You can form your own opinions after listening to a number of panels on various trades and ship classes. Sometimes the consensus is right, and other times, you can spot opportunities that are overlooked by generalists at large. I would note that shipping this year has trounced glitter and gold. As to the future, it hasn’t looked this promising since 1999.