You Can Be Right for the Wrong Reasons

Two weeks ago, when I wrote this blog post, it was a very different world. Mainstream media was telling America that we were going to have a blue wave. The Democrats were going to take traditional red states such as North Carolina and Texas. Instead, we found ourselves with a blue undertow, where the Republican candidate lost at the top of the ticket, but the Republican Party did extremely well down ballot. Not insignificantly, we also had Pfizer’s wonderful vaccine announcement on Monday.

On Friday, October 30, you could have purchased shares of INSW at $13.54 or Costamare at $5.69. As of this Friday’s close, you would be up 17.7% and 12.1% respectively. Underlying shipping markets haven’t changed in the last 14 days. However, markets discount six months forward, consequently investors started acquiring cyclical companies, which luckily included some shipping names.

I don’t know of anyone who predicted both outcomes. If you had stressed about choosing the absolute perfect moment to own CMRE and INSW, you would have likely missed this opportunity. It certainly helps to be lucky, but it confirms a valuable investing lesson – showing up sometimes is 90% of the game.